Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)
Global food security faces a serious threat. Consequently, the FAO food security shock warning has captured worldwide attention. Maximo Torero, Chief Economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), spoke at a briefing. Moreover, he outlined the potential impact and identified the most affected countries.
The ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor are causing one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years. Furthermore, these disruptions carry significant implications for food security, agricultural production, and global markets. Maximo Torero emphasized this point in an FAO press release.
“This is not just an energy shock. It is a systemic shock affecting food systems worldwide,” said Maximo Torero.
FAO Food Security Shock and Rising Fertilizer Costs
FAO forecasts indicate that global fertilizer prices could rise by an average of 15-20% in the first half of 2026. However, this will only occur if the crisis persists. The disruptions are already increasing costs for farmers worldwide. Additionally, fertilizer prices have risen sharply recently. In the first week of March, granular urea in the Middle East increased by 19%. Meanwhile, Egyptian urea prices rose by 28%. Natural gas remains the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers. Therefore, higher energy prices will put additional upward pressure on fertilizer costs.
In the event of short-term disruptions lasting up to one month, the impact is expected to be limited. Global food stocks are currently ample. As a result, markets could stabilize within approximately the next three months. The FAO Food Price Index currently remains approximately 21 percentage points below its peak in March 2022.
If supply disruptions persist for three months or longer, risks will increase significantly. Consequently, this will affect global cropping decisions for 2026 and beyond. Under the medium-term disruption scenario, the FAO projects reduced yields for fertilizer-intensive crops. These include wheat, rice, and maize. Additionally, farmers may substitute nitrogen-fixing crops such as soybeans. Finally, increased competition from biofuel production will emerge as higher oil prices stimulate demand for agricultural commodities.
Impact on Global Agricultural Markets
“Farmers face a double price shock: higher fertilizer costs, and correspondingly higher fuel prices, which impacts the entire agricultural chain, including irrigation and transportation,” the economist said.
Fertilizer use has a nonlinear relationship with crop yields. Therefore, even a small reduction could lead to a disproportionately large decline in crop yields. This is especially true in regions where baseline fertilizer use is already low.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by more than 90% within days of the conflict escalating. Previously, it transported approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day. This represents approximately 35% of the world’s crude oil. Additionally, it carried a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Finally, it transported up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers.
Impact on Different Countries
The impact of the crisis will vary depending on crop cycles and import dependency. Currently, the following countries are most vulnerable:
- Sri Lanka, where the Maha rice harvest is underway;
- Bangladesh is in the critical Boro rice growing season;
- India will face reduced domestic fertilizer production ahead of the kharif season;
- Egypt is highly vulnerable due to its dependence on wheat imports;
- Sudan is already facing acute food shortages;
- In sub-Saharan Africa, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique are particularly vulnerable due to their high dependence on fertilizer imports;
- Major agricultural exporters such as Brazil may also face production cuts, which could impact global markets.