Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
A more compact harvest of the main grain and legume crops in Russia in the current agricultural year (July 1, 2024 – June 30, 2025) will affect the export rate. This was stated by the Director General of ICAR, Dmitry Rylko, at the summer conference “Where is the margin – 2024”, writes Field.RF.
According to ICAR estimates, by the end of the second decade of July, wheat yields in the Southern and Central Federal Districts will be lower than last year.
“Balance as of July 18: 83.2 million production (92.8 million tons last year), 44 million exported (54.3 million tons last year), decline in ending stocks,” said Rylko.
According to ICAR’s basic forecast, domestic consumption will amount to 45 million tons and ending stocks to 14.5 million tons (17.7 million tons in the previous year), including 4.1 million tons in the state intervention fund.
A smaller harvest is also expected for barley. “Perhaps our country has never sown so little spring barley, at least not since 1970. We assume that the harvest will amount to 16.9 million tons (a year ago it was 21.1 million tons),” said Rylko. Exports could more than halve from 8.3 million tons to 3.5 million tons, according to the presentation.
“It could be one of the lowest barley supplies in the last 20 years,” Rylko said.
The drop in the corn crop could be 3 million tons in the base scenario and 4 million tons in the stress scenario.
“We have lowered our gross crop estimate again to 14 million tons (17 million tons last season) because we are already seeing in the south that there will not be a normal crop,” he said.
According to forecasts, corn exports could amount to 3.8 million tons, while last year they reached a record 7 million tons. The main buyer of Russian corn is Iran.
“The center of Russia is now very strongly tied to the Iranian market, which is reflected in the development of corn prices minus transportation costs,” said Rylko.
According to the latest ICAR forecasts, the Russian grain harvest will total 128 million tons this year, with grain exports totalling 55 million tons.