Source: Zerno On-line (Russia)
Russian agricultural exports 2026 could reach $43.5 billion, according to calculations by Rosselkhozbank’s industry expertise center. Moreover, this projection depends heavily on favorable production conditions and increased yields across key sectors.
Russian Agricultural Exports 2026: Volume and Value Forecasts
“This year, we expect that if our positive scenario comes true, exports will exceed 90 million tons, worth over $43.5 billion,” said Oleg Knyazkov, deputy head of the center, at the Elevators of Russia – 2026 conference in Moscow on Wednesday.
Furthermore, the Federal Customs Service of Russia reported that exports in 2025 amounted to $40.9 billion. Consequently, this figure represents 4.1% less than in 2024 ($42.6 billion).
Conditions for Achieving the $43.5 Billion Target
One of the conditions for achieving the $43.5 billion export target is an “optimistic scenario for gross agricultural production,” the bank’s presentation notes. Additionally, the optimistic forecast estimates the grain harvest this year at 148 million to 154 million tons due to increased yields and the restoration of acreage to the average level for the past five years. However, the baseline forecast is 139 million to 148 million tons.
As Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev reported at the end of January, the grain harvest in Russia in 2026, taking into account new regions, amounted to 142 million tons, including more than 93 million tons of wheat.
The center’s optimistic forecast for oilseed production in 2026 is 34 million to 35 million tons, based on growth in yields and acreage. Meanwhile, the baseline forecast is for production of 31 million to 34 million tons.
Export Estimates by Commodity for 2025-2026 Season
The bank estimates wheat exports for this season (July 2025 – June 2026) at 56.2 million tons, compared to 50 million tons in the previous season. Furthermore, the projections include:
- Barley at 6.25 million tons, compared to 4.2 million tons
- Corn at 3.1 million tons compared to 2.9 million tons
- Legumes at 3.9 million tons compared to 2.2 million tons, respectively
Recalling that the goal is to increase agricultural exports to $55 billion by 2030, Knyazkov said that an investment package of export-oriented projects worth more than 1 trillion rubles has been formed to achieve this goal. Specifically, the breakdown includes:
- Food industry: 266 billion rubles
- Oil and fat industry: 169 billion rubles
- Meat: 161 billion rubles
- Grain: 114 billion rubles
- Fish: 111 billion rubles
- Dairy: 57 billion rubles