Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Lingering rains in Brazil are delaying the harvest of early soybean varieties. According to Conab, only 1.2% of the 47.4 million hectares planted have been threshed so far, compared to 6% last year. In Argentina, by contrast, rising temperatures and a lack of rainfall in the south are also raising concerns about soybean and corn plantings.
Despite expectations of record bean harvests in South America, March soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange yesterday rose 3.2% to $392.2 per ton (+9.5% month-on-month) amid negative weather forecasts.
Data from the US Department of Transportation showed that US soybean exports fell 18% to 973,200 tons for the week, but totaled 32.3 million tons for the season, up 20.6% from last year. The rise was driven by strong shipments to China earlier in the season as traders restocked in anticipation of a new round of trade discord.
In Ukraine, export prices for GMO soybeans are also rising by $3-5 per mt to $380-382 per mt with delivery to Black Sea ports, according to the Electronic Grain Exchange. This is due to limited supply from agrarians and an increase in the number of exporters making purchases. Export prices for non-GMO soybeans rose to $400-405 per mt with delivery to the western border of Ukraine. At the same time, demand from European buyers remains limited and the premium for non-GMO is minimal.
The market is awaiting the Trump administration’s decision to impose duties on goods from China, Canada and Mexico, previously announced at 25%. This could significantly impact soybean and corn markets, reducing export demand for U.S. products.