In mid-April, a temporary lull occurred in the Russian wholesale sugar market. Russian beet sugar producers were busy attending the Moscow Sugar Forum and spent the rest of the time watching in amazement the actions of a country’s president.
Our climate model (which only analyzes the sugar beet zones of plants, weighted by the production of the corresponding plant) shows a moisture deficit compared to the average values of previous years. For the period from the beginning of 2025 to the current date, precipitation was 69% of the average comparable values of the previous seven years, lower than the precipitation in any year of those seven years.
Behind the scenes at a sugar forum in Russia, there was discussion that some sugar beet seeds had not been treated (chemical treatment to kill pathogens that cause plant diseases). This can reduce yields by 15–20%.
The estimated cost price for white beet sugar from raw sugar (including VAT and customs duties) is $814.76/t (RUB 70.14/kg).
As of April 10, 2025, the cost price for sugar from imported raw sugar will be:
- in Uzbekistan, it is $679.00/t (RUB 50.28/kg in Krasnodar, including delivery), excluding VAT and customs duties;
- in Kazakhstan, it is $612.4/t (RUB 49.02/kg in Krasnodar, including delivery).
According to Sugar.ru, sugar imports into the Russian Federation in March amounted to approximately 22,000 tons, almost all of which came from Belarus. Imports of Belarusian sugar are increasing. Imports of approximately 200,000 tons of Belarusian sugar are expected by the end of the season.
White sugar exports in March were lower than in January and February, but still exceeded 40,000 tons. We are observing a slowdown in exports due to the strong strengthening of the ruble, but as long as previously concluded contracts are fulfilled, exports will continue.
Raw sugar exports, on the other hand, exceeded the February rate. According to our estimates, approximately 16,000 tons were delivered to Central Asian countries in March, which is 3,000 tons more than our estimate for February.
Total exports of beet sugar and raw sugar in March can be estimated at at least 55,000 tons. The lower estimate for exports since the start of the season on April 1 is 780,000 tons. And with such exports, we will most likely have balances at the start of the new season that are slightly higher than those of the 2021/22 season (the minimum in the last six years). If, for example, exports continue to fulfill contracts already concluded or if the ruble exchange rate weakens, the balances could be lower on August 1, 2025.