Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Parched soils in Russia and Ukraine are jeopardizing next year’s wheat harvest and causing further headaches for farmers affected by weather disruptions and the ongoing war.
The acreage in these countries, which account for more than a quarter of all wheat exports, is too dry to plant some crops. While there is still plenty of time for conditions to improve and for farmers to catch up, the problems could shorten the sowing dates for the winter crops that make up the bulk of annual production.
There is a huge drought in much of European Russia,” says Dmitry Rylko, director of Moscow-based consultancy ICAR. “Farmers are reluctant to sow in the dust.”
This is an early reminder of potential supply risks next season. Although wheat prices are well below their peak, they have risen in recent weeks partly due to supply problems on the Black Sea. Ukraine’s wheat production is about a third below pre-war levels as the country has lost land due to the invasion. Russia’s most recent harvest was around 10% lower due to unfavorable weather conditions.
Russian farmers sowed 6.3 million hectares (15.5 million acres) of winter cereals (excluding oilseeds), the lowest acreage for this time of year in more than a decade, according to ICAR. Ukraine’s acreage is about half of what it was last year.
Heat and drought have made some fields too dry, including for other crops such as rapeseed. According to the US Department of Agriculture, temperatures in Ukraine and western Russia were 7 degrees above normal in the first week of September, leaving soils without moisture.
According to General Director Dmytro Skornyakov, the soils of the Ukrainian agricultural company HarvEast were too dry to sow winter crops and make the necessary preparations for sowing.
According to him, “we can be sure that the number of hectares of rapeseed in Ukraine will decrease because the appropriate time for sowing will soon be over.” “As for wheat and barley, we still have time.”
The difficult situation for farmers is exacerbated by weather problems. The regions now occupied by Moscow have been major agricultural producers, while farmers in other parts of Ukraine have had to work despite land contaminated with mines and unexploded ordnance and labor shortages caused by mobilization.
Although wheat futures in Chicago are more than 50 percent below the 2022 peak, there are signs of tightening supply. Prices recently hit their highest level since June, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects global stockpiles to fall to a nine-year low this season.
Forecaster Maxar said this week’s rains should slightly increase soil moisture for Black Sea wheat, but that much more rain is needed to significantly improve the situation and allay drought fears. Nevertheless, farmers still have until October or November to catch up if the weather improves.
If the European part of Russia receives good rainfall by mid-October and the weather stays warm, “it’s not very dangerous yet,” said Rylko from IKAR.