Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
In Brazil, the accelerated harvesting of soybeans is driving up freight costs, while the active planting of second-crop corn and ongoing tariff disputes between the United States and its trading partners are leading to lower global corn prices.
In this context, the purchase prices for corn at Ukrainian Black Sea ports have seen a decline of $5-8 per ton, or 200-300 UAH per ton, bringing them down to 10,200-10,250 UAH per ton, equivalent to $215-217 per ton, over the past week. Conversely, feed wheat prices have experienced a smaller drop.
Data from the State Customs Service indicates that Ukraine has exported 14.924 million tons of corn in the marketing year 2024/25 (as of March 5), which marks an 11% decrease compared to last year’s figure of 16.569 million tons. By the close of the season, an additional 7-8 million tons may be shipped.
During the past week, freight costs from Ukrainian ports increased by $1-2 per ton, with expectations of continued growth fueled by rising transportation demand from South America, where harvesting is picking up speed.
According to AgRural, as of February 27 in Brazil, 80% of the planned area has been sown with second-crop corn, and favorable weather is supporting crop development, resulting in optimistic forecasts for the corn harvest.
In response to pressure from U.S. automakers, President Trump has postponed the implementation of tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico and Canada for one month, contingent on compliance with the USMCA trade agreement that he negotiated during his first term. This development gives traders hope that tariffs on other commodities may also be alleviated due to market pressures.
March corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased by 0.9% to $173 per ton yesterday, following a weekly decline of 8.6% and trading at a discount of 12.5% compared to a month earlier.
The introduction of a 10% reciprocal duty on corn by China and an export ban affecting 15 U.S. companies is expected to significantly decrease U.S. agricultural shipments to the People’s Republic of China. Additionally, China’s declaration of readiness for a confrontation with the U.S., whether through tariffs or other means, adds to the pessimism in U.S. markets.
Ukrainian agricultural producers are optimistic about a potential rise in demand for their domestic corn from China, especially following China’s decision to dismiss U.S. grain. However, it’s important to note that China has already begun importing corn from Brazil and has secured agreements for shipments from Argentina, which could hinder Ukraine’s ability to significantly boost its corn exports to China.
As a result, Ukraine needs to expedite its corn shipments to the European Union, where it faces stiff competition from U.S. corn and declining prices.
As of March 2, for the marketing year 2024/25, the EU has upped its corn imports by 8% year-on-year to reach 13.8 million tons. Out of this total, 57% or 7.9 million tons originated from Ukraine (down from 65% or 8.3 million tons the previous year). Meanwhile, the U.S. contributed 18.5% or 2.5 million tons (an increase from 0.9% or 110,000 tons year-on-year), and Brazil supplied 12% or 1.5 million tons (same year-on-year percentage but lower amount), along with Canada providing 6.5% or 893 thousand tons (up from 4.8% or 615 thousand tons). The USDA anticipates the EU will import a total of 19.5 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 marketing year, implying that an additional 5.7 million tons will need to be acquired before the season concludes. This could be sourced from Ukraine, Canada, and the U.S., as Brazilian corn will not be accessible until August.
In the Euronext market in Paris, June corn futures experienced a decline of 3.9%, settling at 211.75 €/ton or $228.8/ton over the week (-5.2% for the month), a trend that will likely limit the supply of higher-priced Ukrainian corn.