Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Demand for the new Ukrainian corn crop has increased sharply, importers have become more active, while supply from farmers remains limited, with agribusinesses selling the most. Interest in Ukrainian corn has increased in light of the news about the smaller harvest both in Ukraine and South America. This is according to analysts at the agricultural cooperative PUSK, which was established as part of the WAR.
“Ukraine exported 200,000 tons of corn in September, and although it is a transitional period, we expect the largest export volumes in October, November and December,” PUSK analysts said. Last marketing year, Ukraine exported around 30 million tons of corn. This season, however, much lower volumes are expected as stocks have been reduced – on September 1, there were only 600 thousand tons left in the warehouses. We expect a maize harvest of 21-22 million tons, of which around 5 million tons will be consumed on the domestic market. The export potential of maize is estimated at 15-17 million tons, i.e. almost half of it,” the experts emphasize.
At the same time, there is a high demand for Ukrainian corn on the global markets, especially in Europe. “Spain is literally absorbing Ukrainian corn: At the end of last week, the price rose to 222-224 US dollars per ton, compared to 215 US dollars at the beginning of the week. Portugal has also joined in the buying,” the analysts said. However, Ukrainian corn is in competition with the US. “US exporters are offering corn 2 to 3 US dollars cheaper per ton, forcing importers, including Spain, to switch to US corn in November and December,” the PUSK analysts add.
The global market is also influenced by external factors, particularly the sowing campaign in Argentina. “Corn crops in Argentina are struggling with a lack of moisture, which could seriously affect the harvest and thus world market prices,” the experts say. Despite local fluctuations, maize prices are expected to continue to rise in the second half of the season. “We are already seeing an upward trend. By the end of the year, the conditional price could reach 200-205 US dollars per ton, and even 220-230 US dollars in the spring. In the next 2-3 weeks, however, a temporary price drop to USD 175-178 per tonne is possible,” the analysts conclude.
