Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
China is expected to reduce its reliance on grain imports in marketing year 2025/26 thanks to improved wheat and corn yields. According to the USDA, China’s corn output for that year is forecast to reach 300 million tons, a 1.7% increase over the previous year, as newly developed genetically modified corn strains are likely to significantly enhance productivity.
Wheat output is also set to rise by 1.5% in 2025/26, supported by increased yield and expanded cultivation area. The growth in corn yield is leading to a higher proportion of corn being used in animal feed, a trend that is expected to persist.
USDA noted that while sorghum and barley output should remain steady, imports of these grains are anticipated to fall. This decline is attributed to China’s initiatives to curb grain imports, the increased domestic supply of alternative grains, and fluctuations in global markets caused by geopolitical factors and retaliatory tariffs, which are raising international prices.
Recently, China halted sorghum imports from C&D (USA) Inc after detecting excessive levels of mycotoxins in shipments.
Despite ongoing grain-related issues, overall feed demand in China is projected to see a slight uptick in MY 2024/25, driven by steady requirements for pig feed and rising demand from the poultry sector.
Pig production is forecast to climb in 2025, as improved animal health and management techniques yield more piglets per sow. However, expansion will be constrained by a reduced sow population. In response, the government is encouraging consumers to substitute pork with chicken, given that chickens have a far more efficient feed conversion rate compared to pigs.