Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has published a forecast for the new 2024/2025 growing season, which begins on August 1. The completed Canadian agricultural season 2023/2024 was unfavorable. The overall supply of all major crops declined significantly as production in Western Canada fell considerably due to drought in large parts of the country. Lower supply combined with increased domestic consumption more than offset lower exports and led to lower year-end inventories. Prices for most major crops are expected to be significantly lower than last year, although prices for pulses are expected to rise.
The new crop season is expected to be more favorable due to the summer rains that supported the growing season. As a result, Canada expects a good harvest with a simultaneous decline in agricultural prices.
The area planted to sunflowers in Canada this season is 41% lower than last year – 24 thousand hectares. The reason farmers are abandoning this crop is its lower yield compared to other oilseeds. With an average yield of 22.2 quintals/hectare, gross production is expected to be 51,000 tons. The total supply will amount to 266 thousand tons, taking into account last year’s backlog. The average sunflower price is forecast to be higher than in the 2023-2024 season at CAD 630 per tonne, compared to CAD 535 in the past season.
The country’s canola acreage will decrease slightly this season to 8.9 million hectares. A yield of 21.2 c/ha and gross production of 18.6 million tons are expected. Demand for Canadian canola is expected to remain stable, with domestic processing at 11 million tons. Exports are forecast at 7 million tons, but could be revised up or down depending on the actual size of the crop. Stocks are expected to rise to 2.1 million tons, compared to 1.75 million tons in 2023-24 and the five-year average of 2.52 million tons. The average canola price for the coming crop year is estimated at $680 CAD per tonne, compared to $705 CAD last year.
Canadian flax acreage has dropped to 210,000 hectares this season, down 15 percent from last year. Production is estimated at 266,000 tons, down slightly from last year, as the lower acreage is partially offset by higher yields of 13 hundredweight/hectare. Supply is expected to fall sharply to 426,000 tons due to lower imports and lower production. Domestic consumption of flax is expected to fall to 91,000 tons, while exports are estimated at 250,000 tons. The average flaxseed price is estimated at $605 CAD per metric ton, higher than last year but below the five-year average of $710 CAD per metric ton.
Canadian soybean acreage is expected to increase slightly to 2.32 million hectares in 2024-25 as plantings have been influenced by buyer demand for processing and export. Production will rise to 7.10 million tons at average yields, while supply will increase to 8 million tons, the third highest on record. Domestic processing will amount to 1.9 million tons, with demand for food and fuel remaining stable. Exports are expected to reach 5 million tons, the second highest on record, compared to 5.64 million tons shipped out of the country in 2018-19. Backlogs are expected to rise to 0.52 million tons, with a stock to consumption ratio of 5%. Chatham’s average price for soybeans is expected to decrease by C$30 per tonne from the previous year to C$550 per tonne.
