Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
According to a new USDA FAS/Sofia report, the Bulgarian oilseed harvest in the 2024/25 marketing year will be lower due to the extremely hot and dry weather conditions in July and August.
FAS/Sofia estimates the rapeseed harvest at 190,000 tons, 9% less than last year and 36% less than two years ago. The estimate is based on preliminary harvest data, which shows a decline in average yields. In the 2023/24 marketing year, Bulgaria was a net importer of rapeseed, with trade growth driven by the expansion of domestic processing capacity, and this trend is expected to continue in the 2024/25 marketing year.
Meanwhile, based on updated preliminary harvest data, the Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture reported a further decline in harvested area from 75,500 hectares (beginning of June) to 70,000 hectares (as of August). This is 12% less than the area harvested in the 2023/24 marketing year. The data also shows a 5.7% drop in average rapeseed yield (2.48 t/ha) and a 26.2% drop in production (172,000 tons) compared to the 2023/24 marketing year.
The sunflower harvest is estimated at 1.7 million tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, 4 % less than in the previous year and 21 % less than in the 2022/23 marketing year. This decline is in contrast to earlier optimistic expectations in spring due to the higher sunflower acreage this year. If the forecast materializes, this will be the smallest sunflower harvest in a decade. These developments are likely to lead to a shortage of seed and a probable decline in exports and processing.
Preliminary harvest data updated by the country’s ministry at the end of August shows a 7.1% increase in sunflower area to 922,000 hectares compared to the same period last year, but initial harvest data from August 29 shows a 16% drop in yields (1.47 tons per hectare) compared to the 2023/24 marketing year. Opening stocks in the 2024/25 marketing year are estimated at 210,000 tons, compared to 271,000 tons in the 2023/24 marketing year.
Strong import demand is expected, which will be exacerbated by a decline in the oilseed harvest in the region and in the EU. For these reasons, production and exports of sunflower oil and meal are expected to decline. Traders and processors are likely to limit sunflower seed exports in anticipation of higher prices for processed products.
Bulgaria is the leading sunflower producer in the EU with a capacity of more than 4.5 million tons. In the last two marketing years, the country has been able to export significant quantities of sunflower oil and meal to countries outside the EU thanks to increased processing. This situation could change in the 2024/25 marketing year and some of the export markets could be temporarily lost due to lower supply volumes and potentially less competitive export prices. In addition, higher EU import demand for oilseeds, vegetable oils and meal could contribute to this situation.