Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
In the latter half of February, Brazil experienced an improvement in its weather, characterized by reduced rainfall in the western, southern, and northeastern regions. This shift was crucial for the harvesting of early soybeans and the planting of the Safrinha corn.
Fieldwork advanced at a pace of seven miles, yet additional studies suggest that this change in climatic patterns may be sustainable, potentially leading to decreased rainfall for certain crops in March.
The onset of seasonal rains, which was delayed until late September and October 2024, triggered a series of challenges for Brazil’s summer crop production. However, it only became a significant concern by mid-February. Analysts in the market and meteorologists attributed the delays in soybean harvesting to the moderate to heavy rains experienced in January and February.
Indeed, had the weather conditions been optimal, the soybeans would not have been harvested on schedule due to their incomplete maturity. This lack of readiness stemmed from a three-week delay in early planting rather than the excessive rain during January and February. While drier conditions might have hastened crop maturity, they would have come at the expense of lower yields.
Conversely, the almost perfect distribution of rainfall from November to early February favored exceptionally high soybean and first-crop corn yields. Nonetheless, the challenges of harvesting early soybeans to ensure Safrinha corn planting by the end of February were significant. A brief respite from rainfall in mid-February facilitated swift fieldwork and enabled the planting of most Safrinha crops. However, some crops were sown late, leading to delays in their germination and establishment.
In Brazil, late-maturing corn represents a short-season crop and can yield successful results if the monsoon season extends until mid-April in typical years. This year’s late planting necessitates timely rains throughout April, with light rain in May being optimal, although this is uncertain. World Weather, Inc. anticipates a generally normal conclusion to the monsoon season. However, the more pressing concern regarding this conclusion is the potential for end-of-season precipitation being weaker than usual.
Precipitation during the monsoon is anticipated for March and April; however, both its intensity and distribution are expected to be below average. Such conditions may lead to insufficient soil moisture, causing mild stress for crops. It is imperative that rainfall occurs punctually over the coming weeks. While this aspect of the forecast may apply to numerous regions, the expected rainfall totals remain lower than normal, posing a potential challenge for the reproductive phase of crops.
In a typical year, timely soybean planting and harvesting yield optimal results for Safrinha crops when the rainy season concludes in mid-April, ensuring that the soil has adequate moisture by that time. Well-saturated soil supports standard plant growth during reproduction and grain filling, resulting in high yield outcomes. Conversely, insufficient soil moisture by the end of the rainy season can significantly jeopardize reproduction and grain development, particularly with temperatures exceeding normal levels.
In mid-February, a shift in weather conditions led to drier patterns in Brazil’s Safrinha soybean and corn cultivation regions, facilitated by a high-pressure system in the upper atmosphere that moved inland from the Atlantic Ocean into southeastern Brazil. This long-anticipated high pressure has precisely met the needs of farmers for harvesting soybeans and initiating the planting of Safrinha corn, although some late agricultural activities are expected to extend into March.
For certain Brazilian producers, the persistence of this high-pressure ridge for much of March is concerning. It is predicted to remain stable during the first half of the month, with weather models indicating that it may exhibit fluctuations later in March.
Farmers are hoping for a timely disruption in the high-pressure system that would provide sufficient rainfall to support normal crop growth. Nonetheless, there is rising apprehension regarding subpar long-term soil moisture following the conclusion of the monsoon season, which could heighten the risk of moisture and heat stress during the reproductive and grain-filling stages. This risk seems to be increasing.
The high-pressure system in southeastern Brazil has already contributed to the drying of coffee, sugarcane, corn, soybeans, and cotton from Minas Gerais to Bahia and into southeastern Piaui and Tocantins. While some drying has also been noted in the central areas of southern Brazil, western regions have experienced more consistent rainfall.
The drying conditions in Paraná, São Paulo, and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul are not particularly alarming, as soil moisture levels remain favorable and timely precipitation is expected in those areas. Conversely, the states of Minas Gerais and Bahia are likely to stay dry, and as March advances, Goiás and Tocantins may experience below-average rainfall.
Brazil’s most significant state for corn and Safrinha cotton production is Mato Grosso, with Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, and Paraná also playing key roles. The projections for March indicate that Mato Grosso is likely to avoid the most severe drought conditions; however, it is crucial to keep a close eye on the weather this month, as a drier-than-average period could jeopardize the viability of summer crops once the monsoon concludes.
Although there is still potential for changes in the forecast, currently, most regions in Brazil dedicated to growing cereals, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane, coffee, and citrus are predicted to experience below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures in the coming weeks. While this does not imply a drop in yields for late-season corn, it will necessitate timely rainfall not just in April, but potentially extending into May as well.