Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
EU wheat export forecast 2025/26 has dropped again as consulting firm Expana lowered its projection by another 1.2 million tons to 27.6 million tons. Moreover, strong competition on the global market caused this reduction, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the estimate.
EU Wheat Export Forecast 2025/26: USDA and Historical Comparisons
Recall that USDA experts lowered their EU export forecast from 32.5 to 31.5 million tons in the February balance sheet. Furthermore, this compares to 28 million tons in 2024/25 MY.
Global Competition and Market Pressures
Competition from Ukrainian and Russian wheat is somewhat lower this year. Meanwhile, pressure from the US and southern hemisphere countries has intensified, according to Expana.
At the same time, the company’s experts expect EU barley exports in 2025/26 MY to reach their highest level since 2015/16 MY due to high demand in the Middle East.
Frost Damage and Production Revisions
However, recent frosts in Poland and the Baltic states damaged winter crops, prompting analysts to lower 2026 EU grain production forecasts from January estimates. Specifically, soft wheat dropped from 128.6 to 128.3 million tons, barley from 52.8 to 52.4 million tons, and corn to 58.3 million tons.
Although soft wheat and barley yields will be 6% and 8% lower than last year, respectively, they will still exceed the 10-year average, according to Expana.