Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
A report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) indicates that for the 2024/25 season, the production of Australia’s winter crops – including wheat, barley, and canola – is anticipated to reach 59.8 million tons, marking a 27% increase over the 10-year average and representing the third highest production level ever, according to World Grain.
ABARES forecasts an 8% rise in the area dedicated to winter crops for the 2024-25 season, estimating it at 24.9 million hectares. This figure sets a new national record due to expanded planting territories. Favorable seasonal conditions during planting have encouraged cultivation in areas usually not associated with winter crops, like the northwest region of New South Wales and Western Australia, where production estimates have been raised by 19% and 6%, respectively, compared to the December 2024 forecast.
While the canola production forecast has been adjusted downward by 2% to 5.9 million tons compared to the previous year, this is attributed to a slight decrease in the total area planted, despite improved yields. Nonetheless, the area planted remains above the 10-year average, with Canada’s canola production expected to be 31% higher than the 10-year average.
For the marketing year 2024/25, wheat production is projected to grow to 34.1 million tons, a 31% increase from the previous year and 28% above the 10-year average. Within New South Wales and Western Australia, which are Australia’s leading wheat-producing states, production estimates have surged by 82% and 64% respectively, largely driven by enhanced output from northern agricultural zones. Australia stands as the second-largest wheat exporter globally, following Russia, and is the primary source of barley.
Barley production is expected to rise by 23% to reach 13.3 million tons, representing a 17% increase over the 10-year average, driven by a 10% growth in the area planted and yields that exceed the average.
Sorghum production for 2024-25 is forecasted to increase by 5% to 2.3 million tons, which is 37% above the decade’s average of 1.7 million tons. Expected yields are projected to be 33% higher than the 10-year average, backed by favorable seasonal conditions in key growing regions.
Conversely, rice production is predicted to fall by 29% to 444,000 tons, due to a projected 25% reduction in the area planted. Factors contributing to this decline include lower international prices and diminished water availability in the sector.