The Russian wheat export drop forecast for May 2026 has caught the attention of global grain traders. According to preliminary data reported by the Rusagrotrans analytical center to Interfax, Russia exported 3.95 million tons of wheat in April. Furthermore, shipments in May could decline to nearly 2.5 million tons. This development reflects both seasonal patterns and shifting buyer behavior in international grain markets.
April Performance Before the Russian Wheat Export Drop
April exports delivered a strong result before the anticipated decline. Specifically, April shipments were 1.65 times higher than a year earlier, when they totaled 2.39 million tons. Consequently, April stands out as a particularly active month for Russian wheat trade. Moreover, this performance came against a backdrop of steady global demand during the early months of the season.
Therefore, the contrast with May’s projected figures is notable. The overall trajectory clearly points toward a seasonal cooling of export activity as the marketing year approaches its end.
Russian Wheat Export Drop in May: Causes and Context
As Rusagrotrans notes, the Russian wheat export drop in May is estimated at approximately 2.5 million tons. Two main factors are driving this decline:
- A seasonal decrease in demand from importing countries
- A shift in purchasing focus toward the new harvest
Nevertheless, even with this pullback, the May figure is still expected to be 19% higher than in May 2025, when exports stood at 2.1 million tons. Consequently, while the month-on-month contraction is significant, the year-on-year comparison remains positive for Russian exporters.
Spring Sowing Progress and Full-Season Export Outlook
Analysts also commented on the progress of the spring sowing campaign. They stated that the lag in spring crop planting could narrow thanks to dry weather expected over the coming week in the Central and Volga Federal Districts. However, precipitation may resume the following week, they forecast.
Additionally, the full-season outlook remains substantial. In total, for the current season covering July 2025 through June 2026, Rusagrotrans forecasts wheat exports of nearly 45.5 million tons. Therefore, despite the near-term Russian wheat export drop in May, Russia remains the dominant force in global wheat trade for the 2025–2026 marketing year. Furthermore, the scale of the annual forecast underscores the structural importance of Russian grain supply to world markets.
Source: Oleoscope (Russia)