The IGC raises grain export forecast for the 2025/2026 season, reflecting notable shifts in global supply and consumption estimates. The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its outlook upward, signaling a more optimistic picture for international grain trade. These updated figures come from the Grain On-Line agency and carry important implications for grain markets worldwide.
IGC Raises Grain Export Forecast: Global Production Revised Upward
The International Grains Council has raised its estimate for global grain production in the 2025/2026 season by 4 million tonnes to 2,474 million tonnes. This upward revision is primarily due to an increased corn harvest estimate in Argentina. Therefore, improved South American crop performance plays a key role in the updated forecast.
Global Consumption Estimate Lowered, Trade Volume Rises
Meanwhile, the global grain consumption estimate has been lowered by 1 million tonnes to 2,422 million tonnes compared to the March forecast. However, the lower forecast for wheat use for food in India more than offsets the higher forecast for corn use for feed. As a result, these two adjustments largely balance each other out.
Furthermore, global grain trade is forecast to be 2 million tonnes higher than expected in March, at 451 million tonnes. In addition, this figure stands 27 million tonnes higher than last season. According to the IGC, Russia may export 52.3 million tonnes of grain this season, including 45.8 million tonnes of wheat.
Ending Stocks and Russia’s Grain Reserves Grow Significantly
Due to an increased global supply estimate and a decreased consumption estimate, the ending stocks forecast has been increased by 6 million tons to 638 million tons. Notably, this increase includes a significant adjustment to the wheat forecast. Consequently, global buffer stocks are now in a considerably stronger position than previously projected.
Russia, moreover, will have 17.9 million tons of grain remaining by the end of the season, including 13.6 million tons of wheat. For comparison, grain reserves in Russia at the end of last season stood at 13.1 million tons. Thus, Russia’s closing stocks are growing year on year, which further supports the case that the IGC raises grain export forecast expectations on solid grounds.
Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)