Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Ukraine Sunflower Production in 2026/27 is forecast at 12.8 million tons. This represents a 15% decrease from the previous season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Information Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA).
Furthermore, rapeseed production could decline by 8% to 4 million tons. Additionally, soybean production could decrease by 24% to 4.7 million tons. The total area under oilseed crops is forecast at 8.6 million hectares. This figure aligns with the average for the past five years.
Ukraine Sunflower Production: Area and Export Forecasts
FAS forecasts sunflower area to reach 5.4 million hectares (up 6%). Meanwhile, soybean area will decrease by 11% to 1.8 million hectares.
Sunflower seed exports in 2026/27 are estimated at 30,000 tons (-14%). Additionally, soybean exports are projected at 1.7 million tons (-15%). Moreover, rapeseed exports are estimated at 2 million tons (-5%).
FAS notes that the combination of export duties on soybeans and rapeseed, excess processing capacity, and a sunflower shortage led to an increase in the processing of these crops in 2025/26. Consequently, this trend is expected to continue.
Processing Capacity and Production Outlook
The industry’s estimated processing capacity is approximately 20 million tons per year. This capacity includes both large industrial enterprises and small-scale production.
Sunflower processing in 2026/27 could increase by 1.7 million tons to 12.7 million tons. At the same time, soybean processing will decrease by 100,000 tons to 3 million tons. Meanwhile, rapeseed processing will increase by 900,000 tons to 2 million tons.
Sunflower oil production is forecast at 5.5 million tons (+15%). Additionally, soybean oil production is projected at 551,000 tons (-3%). Moreover, rapeseed oil production is forecast at 820,000 tons (+25%).
Export Market Trends for Ukrainian Oilseeds
Ukraine will remain among the world’s leading sunflower oil exporters. Deliveries are expected at 5 million tons, which is 500,000 tons more than in the previous season. Furthermore, rapeseed oil exports could increase by 84% to 825,000 tons. Meanwhile, soybean oil exports could decline by 4% to 550,000 tons.
Finally, FAS notes that the European Union remains the main market for Ukrainian oilseeds and their processed products.