Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Australia canola harvest forecast shows a significant decline for the upcoming season. According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA), Australia’s canola harvest in the 2026-27 season will be 6.2 million tonnes, 19% below last year’s record. Furthermore, this is due to a doubling of diesel and nitrogen fertilizer prices, as well as shipping disruptions due to the situation in the Middle East.
Australia Canola Harvest Forecast: Input Cost Challenges
According to the FAS, diesel supplies are delayed for the 2026-27 crop planting season, and prices have roughly doubled. Additionally, nitrogen fertilizer prices have also more than doubled. Among Australia’s main winter crops—canola, wheat, barley, and pulses—canola and wheat are the most nitrogen-intensive.
The service expects canola acreage to decline by 6.8%, and yields to decline by a significant 13%. Consequently, as a result, the yield will be 9.5% below the five-year average, but 7% above the ten-year average.
Export and Processing Outlook
Australia remains the world’s second-largest oilseed exporter after Canada, accounting for approximately a third of global trade in recent years. Due to reduced production, rapeseed exports are expected to fall by 16% to 4.7 million tonnes.
Rapeseed processing remains at its highest level for the last season, at 1.3 million tonnes, with a capacity of 1.6 million tonnes, while rapeseed oil exports will rise to a record 300,000 tonnes.
Fertilizer Supply Concerns
Fertilizer stocks at farms are at risk of a significant decline as the growing season approaches, according to the FAS.