Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Iran war wheat prices have drawn global market attention. This comes four years after Russia’s war against Ukraine began. Consequently, global conflicts focus on the wheat market once again. This time, the focus has shifted to the Middle East. US and Israeli strikes on Iran rocked commodity markets. Furthermore, they helped wheat futures continue their winter rally. Prices briefly pushed above $6 per bushel in early March.
Iran War Wheat Prices: Long-Term Outlook
However, the long-term market reaction differs from 2022. It is unlikely to repeat that scenario. Russia’s invasion then led to a sharp rise in prices. Hard winter wheat reached around $14 per bushel. Nevertheless, American farmers approaching the winter harvest have reasons for cautious optimism.
Drought in Southern Plains
First, drought affects the Southern Plains. Much of Oklahoma and Texas remained in moderate to severe drought conditions until February. Furthermore, state-level crop estimates have sharply worsened since the beginning of 2026.
USDA Forecasts and Declining Production
Second, declining acreage and yield concern analysts. In February, the USDA forecast US wheat acreage for all varieties in 2026 at 45 million acres. This represents a 0.7% decrease from 2025. Additionally, it marks a six-year low. Production is expected to decline 6.3% to 1.86 billion bushels.
Despite the rise in July 2026 HRW futures, volatility remains. Prices jumped from a December low of $5.29 to nearly $6.08 in early March. This represents a 15% increase. However, the past two years show such early-year surges can be short-lived. The average decline from peak to contract expiration was around $1.45. A prolonged geopolitical conflict could create a news-driven market. Nevertheless, weather conditions and other local factors will determine prices. Furthermore, market movements will be rapid.