Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
US soybean oil stocks surge to record levels. This has reversed prices downward. The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs led to a significant decline in US soybean exports. In the first half of the 2025/26 season, shipments fell by 11.4 million tonnes compared to the same period last season. This, in turn, stimulated growth in domestic crushing. Consequently, it created an oversupply of soybean oil in the US market.
US Soybean Oil Stocks Surge: Crushing Records
According to the German research agency Oil World, US soybean crushing volumes could reach a historic high of 71 million tonnes this season. This is significantly higher than the 2024/25 level of 66.5 million tonnes.
Moreover, up-to-date data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) confirms this trend. Specifically, in February, soybean crushing volumes fell by 6% compared to January. However, this occurred solely due to the smaller number of days in the month. Nevertheless, daily volumes reached a record 7.45 million bushels. This indicates high capacity utilization.
Crushing Volumes and Market Imbalance
In total, 36.3 million tonnes of soybeans were crushed in the US from September to February of the 2025/26 season. For comparison, this figure for the same period last season was 33.5 million tonnes. Furthermore, the five-year average did not exceed 31.2 million tonnes.
The key factor driving prices downward was the imbalance in the soybean oil market. Record production volumes amid weak demand from the biofuel industry led to a sharp increase in inventories. In February, this figure reached its highest level since May 2018. Additionally, it increased by 39% year-on-year. Moreover, it exceeded February 2025 levels by 5-6 million tonnes.
Futures and Current Pricing
May soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have risen by 50% year-over-year. Specifically, they reached $1,455 per tonne. Furthermore, the main increase (33%) occurred in 2026. Growth in the first phase was driven by expectations of increased biodiesel quotas. Additionally, the Trump administration supported this growth. Moreover, reduced subsidies for biodiesel made from imported oils contributed. This theoretically increased the attractiveness of local feedstocks. However, given rising stocks and the progress of harvesting in South America, export availability is increasing.
According to OleoScope, on March 23, 2026, the price of soybean oil (FOB EU) for March delivery was $1,320.13 per tonne. This was down $3.77 per tonne. The price of soybean oil (FOB Brazil) for March delivery was $1,208.23 per tonne.