Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)
Russian wheat competitiveness growing is evident in March export data. Specifically, Russian wheat exports in March could reach 3.8 million tonnes. Furthermore, this compares to an average of 3.1 million tonnes over the past five years. Additionally, deliveries have accelerated amid the crop’s recovering competitiveness, according to the Sovecon analytical center.
Export Performance and Price Spreads
According to analysts, exports in February totaled 2.9 million tonnes. Moreover, this is slightly below average.
According to Sovecon, the spread between French and Russian wheat widened to $6-8 per tonne in March. Furthermore, this compares to around zero at the beginning of the year.
“In recent weeks, the marginality of Russian wheat exports has become positive, while at the beginning of the year it was close to zero or negative,” the report states.
Russian Wheat Competitiveness Growing: Market Position
Sovecon also notes a decline in activity among Russia’s main competitors. Specifically, Ukraine and the EU show reduced competitiveness.
In February, Sovecon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025-2026 season by 0.3 million tonnes, to 45.4 million tonnes. Moreover, this came amid a deterioration in competitiveness. However, given the current acceleration in deliveries and improved pricing conditions, analysts do not rule out revising the estimate upwards.
