Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)
Brazil wheat harvest 2026 may reach its lowest level in five years. Specifically, Conab analysts forecast the Brazilian wheat harvest in 2026/27 at 6.9 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Safras & Mercado experts estimate the figure at 6.86 million tonnes. Furthermore, this represents 12% below the previous year’s level. Consequently, this could be the lowest output since 2021/22, according to Reut.
Factors Driving Brazil Wheat Harvest 2026 Decline
According to analysts, the decline in grain production will be driven by low profitability. Additionally, rising fertilizer costs, particularly nitrogen, hurt farmer margins. Moreover, increased production costs add further pressure. Furthermore, competition from other crops reduces wheat acreage.
Sowing Area Reductions and Weather Risks
Wheat sowing in Brazil is scheduled to begin in April. Meanwhile, Safras & Mercado analysts expect a reduction in grain sown area to 1.99 million hectares (-15.5% year-on-year). Furthermore, market operators forecast a potential decline to 2.32 million hectares (-5.2%).
In addition, the possibility of an El Niño weather event in the second half of the year is a concern. Moreover, excessive rainfall from it could degrade the quality of Brazilian wheat.
