Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
US corn exports vs Ukraine competition is intensifying as the US aggressively enters new corn markets. Moreover, the US is strengthening its position in traditional markets and methodically pushing out competitors. One of the countries that feels this most strongly is Ukraine, according to Ukrainian industry agencies.
US Corn Exports vs Ukraine: EU Market Battleground
The main point of competition is the EU, which is among the top five importers for both countries. Furthermore, this is where the changes are most noticeable: between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons, the US increased its supplies by 6.5 million tons, while Ukraine reduced its exports by 7.5 million tons. The main growth in the US was provided by South Korea and the EU (primarily Spain), as well as new markets for itself – Egypt, Tunisia, Israel, and Vietnam.
In fact, Turkey became the main destination for the reorientation of Ukrainian corn flows. Additionally, apart from Turkey, Ukraine managed to maintain or partially strengthen its position only in the markets of Spain, South Korea, Vietnam, and Israel.
US Trade Agreements and Market Consolidation
In 2025-2026, the US consolidated its position in key corn markets due to trade agreements with fixed volumes and the removal of barriers. Consequently, Japan agreed to purchase $8 billion worth of American agricultural products annually, while South Korea more than doubled its corn imports.
Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, the US gained duty-free access to Indonesia and direct purchase agreements with Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Taiwan.
Similarly, in the EU, a framework agreement on “balanced trade” provides for the removal of non-tariff barriers, creating better conditions for corn and bioethanol supplies. An agreement with the UK has a similar effect.
In other words, part of the growth in US corn exports is based not only on price competitiveness, but also on a contractually established trade infrastructure. Therefore, this creates a more comfortable environment for the US in the markets of the EU, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Middle East, and South Asia — where Ukraine used to operate systematically.
Turkey: Ukraine’s Last Stronghold
The only major market where Ukraine is currently increasing its corn exports and faces almost no direct competition from the US is Turkey. However, the determining factor here is not logistics or even price, but a strict regulatory framework.
Theoretically, Turkey can import American corn provided that it does not contain unapproved GMOs. In practice, the US has almost no presence in this market. Specifically, the reason is the high probability of American corn containing GMO traits that are not included in the Turkish list of permitted modifications, as well as the risk of mixing different hybrids in the supply chain.
Today, Ukraine accounts for about 75% of Turkey’s corn imports. Thus, Turkey remains a key market for Ukrainian exports, and further supply dynamics will largely depend on demand from this country.
Earlier, it became known that the US is displacing Ukrainian soybeans from the Egyptian market. In the first four months of the 2025/26 season, Ukrainian soybean supplies to Egypt — one of the three key markets for Ukraine along with Turkey and the EU — amounted to only 38,000 tons, showing a drop of more than 6 times compared to 246,000 tons in September-December 2024 and almost 12,000 tons compared to the same period of the 2023/24 season.