Source: Zol.ru (Russia)
From August 1 to 20, Russia exported 2.913 million tons of grain, which is 1.8 times less than last year.
Elena Tyurina, director of the union’s analytical department, told Interfax that wheat shipments fell by 44.6% to 2.51 million tons. Barley shipments fell by 41% to 323,000 tons from 548,000 tons, and corn shipments fell 2.5 times to 79,000 tons from 197,000 tons, respectively.
“According to preliminary estimates, shipments of major grain types in August will amount to 4.5 million tons, which is 2.3 million tons less than in August last year, when 6.8 million tons were shipped. This includes 3.9 million tons of wheat, compared to 6.1 million tons a year earlier,” Tyurina said.
She stated that Russia exported wheat to 27 countries in August, down from 60 countries a year earlier. Egypt was the largest buyer, with 580,000 tons, but shipments decreased by 31%. Turkey took second place, but exports to this country fell to 169,500 tons from 440,000 tons in the same period last year. Kenya rounds out the top three, increasing its purchases almost fivefold to 154,700 tons. In addition, Russia shipped 133,000 tons to the UAE (2.1 times more), 120,000 tons to Saudi Arabia (1.8 times more), and 66,000 tons to Iraq (1.9 times more). “Other countries have seen a decline in shipments, most significantly Algeria, which was previously a major buyer. Now exports to this destination have fallen fivefold, to 62,000 tons,” the expert said.
“The number of companies that shipped wheat during this period was 27, which is a sharp drop compared to last year. At that time, 104 companies shipped wheat,” Tyurina said.
Russian Grain Exports: Iran Emerges as Key Buyer
Iran became the main buyer of barley, purchasing 160,000 tons (a fourfold increase). Barley shipments also reached Turkey and Saudi Arabia. “To Turkey, for example, shipments increased 3.2 times, but the volume is insignificant – 44,400 tons,” Tyurina said.
Iran also became the largest buyer of corn, purchasing nearly 60,000 tons. Turkey reduced its purchases more than threefold, to 14,500 tons. At the same time, the expert noted a 1.8-fold increase in corn shipments to China, to 5,000 tons.
In August, grain and leguminous crops were shipped through 32 Russian ports, compared to 54 a year ago. Traditionally, the largest volumes went through Novorossiysk – 1 million 398 thousand tons. But this is 17% less than in the same period last season, when 1 million 687 thousand tons were shipped. “There has been a significant drop in road transshipment – 2.8 times, to 385 thousand tons, compared to 1 million 086 thousand tons a year ago,” Tyurina said. “Shipments through the terminals of Rostov-on-Don also fell 2.8 times, to 299,000 tons from almost 850,000 tons a year ago. Transshipment through Taman decreased by 1.5 times, to 256,000 tons from 400,000 tons, and through Azov by 27%, to 192,000 tons.”
According to her, other ports also experienced a sharp decline. At the same time, she noted an increase in shipments through Vysotsk (Leningrad Region) – almost 1.8 times, to 50,000 tons.
Price Stability and Challenges for Russian Grain Exports
Speaking about the price situation on the market, Tyurina said that prices for French wheat by August 20 had remained virtually unchanged compared to the beginning of the month and amounted to $233 per ton. “True, by August 10, they had risen to $239, but then fell back to the level at the beginning of the month,” she noted. American wheat rose in price by $3 between August 1 and August 20, to $219 per ton. Prices for Russian wheat (FOB Novorossiysk) are stable at $240-241 per ton.
Wheat prices in deep-water ports fell from 17,000 rubles to 16,350 rubles per ton during this period.
Producer prices for wheat (4th grade) decreased by 2.8% to 13,500 rubles per ton. In dollar terms, the decrease was about $4 to $185 per ton. “Perhaps the decline in domestic prices against the backdrop of the harvest will support exporters, and they will be able to trade at a discount to European grain. The lack of a discount, of course, is holding back sales on the world market,” the expert concluded.