Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
The global corn market has taken an unexpected turn this season. Despite a record harvest in Brazil, exports are lagging behind previous years’ rates. At the same time, analysts believe that this delay could open up new opportunities for the US in the global market as early as this fall.
In August, the USDA left its forecast for corn production in Brazil unchanged at 132 million tons, while the state agency Conab raised its estimate to 137 million tons. Some local consultants even talk about 150 million tons thanks to record yields in the key states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná. Such a difference in estimates indicates the potential for a new record harvest.
However, domestic factors are holding back exports. First, China has reduced purchases due to large stocks. Second, domestic consumption is growing, particularly due to the development of corn ethanol production. Finally, ports remain congested with soybean shipments, which slows down corn shipments.
For the US, this creates a short-term “window of opportunity.” The USDA has raised its forecast for US corn exports in the 2025/26 marketing year from 2.675 to 2.875 billion bushels. If Brazil is unable to quickly ramp up shipments, US suppliers will be able to capture demand from key buyers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
However, the situation remains uncertain. If Brazil begins active shipments later this year, competition for the US will increase. Additional volatility to the market could come from new revisions to US yields, changes in tariff policy, and China’s behavior in the import market.