Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for delivery in August-September rose to $242/t FOB (+$5/t compared to the previous week), while a year ago they were around $220/t. However, buyer demand remained sluggish. Prices for French wheat rose to $237/t (+$8.5/t). For American wheat to $218/t (+$4/t), and for Australian wheat to $255/t (+$4/t). Prices for Romanian wheat fell to $243/t (-$1/t), while prices for Argentine wheat remained unchanged at $234/t.
US wheat exchange market
The US wheat exchange market fell under pressure from the corn market, which reacted to the bearish USDA report. After a brief weakening, the European market recovered to the levels of the previous week.
The key event in the August USDA report was a sharp increase in forecasts for global corn production and stocks. Global corn production in 2025/2026 will reach a record 1,289 million tons (+25 million tons from the previous estimate, +66 million tons from 2024/2025). The forecast was raised mainly due to the US (by 26.3 million tons to 425.3 million tons).
Global wheat production forecasts were lowered by 2 million tons to 806.7 million tons, mainly due to a reduction in the estimate for China (from 142 to 140 million tons).
The export price for Russian barley rose to $224/t FOB (+$3/t from the previous week). The price in deep-water ports remained at around 16,000-16,200 rubles/t excluding VAT.
The price of wheat (class 4, 12.5% protein) in deep-water ports remained at 16,700-16,900 rubles/ton excluding VAT.
In the south, wheat prices (grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator) weakened to 14,200-14,600 rubles/ton. For Volga region, prices for grade 4 wheat fell to 12,300-13,500 rubles/ton (-800 rubles/ton). In Central Russia, prices remained in the range of 13,000-13,600 rubles/ton (on average +150 rubles/ton compared to the previous week, influenced by demand from processors).
In Siberia, prices for grade 4 wheat fell to 10,500-12,000 rubles (-350 rubles/ton). The start of the new harvest is being delayed due to rain.
Wheat exports for the first half of August are estimated at 1.3 million tons, with a forecast for the month based on planned shipments of 3-3.2 million tons.
