Source: APKinform (Ukraine)
Grain traders are closely monitoring the situation. Prices for new harvest wheat in Russian ports are steadily increasing. This trend is impacting the market, raising concerns among buyers. Simultaneously, demand is rising. It shows strong interest in Russian grain.
Factors Driving the Increase in Wheat Prices
Firstly, logistical challenges contribute to the increase. Specifically, shipowners are facing increased insurance rates. This leads to higher freight costs. Consequently, the cost of delivery is rising. Furthermore, the ruble’s depreciation also plays a role. The weaker ruble against major currencies impacts export prices. Secondly, the quality of the new harvest is a key factor. Despite initial expectations, the protein content is lower in some regions. Thirdly, weather conditions have influenced yields. Dry weather during critical growth stages affected the harvest.
Therefore, prices are expected to remain elevated. As a result, exporters are adjusting their offers. Typically, prices for 12.5% protein wheat reached $238-240 per ton FOB in deep-sea ports. In Azov ports, prices are $230-233 per ton. These prices are for August-September delivery.
Current Price Levels and Market Dynamics
Currently, the average price of 12.5% protein wheat stands at 17,275 rubles per ton. This is without VAT. This figure is based on data from exporters on July 26, 2024. Simultaneously, third-class wheat averages 16,225 rubles per ton. Fourth-class wheat is at 15,200 rubles per ton. Moreover, feed wheat is priced at 13,700 rubles per ton. These prices are also without VAT.
The agricultural consultancy “Sovecon” notes a significant increase. This rise concerns export prices for Russian wheat. Therefore, Sovecon increased its forecast. The forecast is for wheat exports in July. It increased the export forecast by 0.3 million tons. The new forecast is 4.8 million tons. Also, the consultancy “ProZerno” raised its forecast. The forecast for August wheat exports rose by 0.2 million tons. It is now 4.2 million tons.
However, it is worth noting that these are preliminary figures. Market conditions may change. Consequently, it is important to monitor the prices for new harvest wheat in Russian ports. This monitoring ensures staying informed about the evolving market.