Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The USDA anticipates a 10% decrease in global olive oil production. This projection stems from adverse weather patterns. Specifically, drought and high temperatures impacted key olive-growing regions. The latest USDA report reveals concerning figures for the 2023/2024 season.
Production Challenges in Key Regions
Spain, a major producer, expects a significant reduction. Specifically, Spain’s output is projected to fall to 660,000 metric tons. This figure represents a 34% decrease compared to the previous season. Italy also faces challenges. Consequently, Italy’s production should be at 290,000 metric tons, down 12%. Greece, however, shows more resilience. Its output is expected to rise 36% to 340,000 metric tons.
Turkey’s production is also forecast to decrease. The estimated production is 180,000 metric tons, a 28% drop. Tunisia should see a slight recovery, with 180,000 metric tons produced. Furthermore, Portugal’s production is projected at 200,000 metric tons.
Globally, olive oil consumption is also expected to decline. The estimated consumption is down 3% to 3.03 million metric tons. This reduction reflects higher prices and reduced availability. Consequently, import demand is also expected to fall. The import demand should be down 8% to 977,000 metric tons.
Exports are also predicted to decrease. They should be down 17% to 830,000 metric tons, due to limited supplies. Moreover, the USDA projects lower ending stocks. The projected ending stocks are down 25% to 427,000 metric tons.
Impact on Olive Oil Prices and Trade
Olive oil prices have been climbing steadily. These prices reflect supply shortages and increased demand pressure. As a result, consumers might face higher costs. Also, trade patterns are expected to shift. Countries with better harvests may increase their exports. The global olive oil market faces a period of adjustment. Furthermore, industry experts are closely monitoring the situation. They are looking for potential long-term impacts. The 2023/2024 season presents significant challenges and opportunities.