Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
The ongoing strain in trade relations between the United States and China has resulted in a heightened demand for Brazilian soybeans from China, causing export premiums at Brazilian ports to rise. Experts foresee this pattern persisting in the upcoming months as China continues to secure soybeans to address its domestic shortfall.
Currently, the export premiums for soybeans at the port of Santos in São Paulo are set at 65 cents per bushel for shipments scheduled in April and 75 cents for those in May. As noted by analyst Ronaldo Fernandez from Royal Rural, the elevated prices stem from alterations in customs regulations. Previously, transporting soybeans to processing facilities took around 7 to 10 days; now, this timeframe has extended to nearly 20 days. This change has resulted in a soybean meal scarcity within the domestic market, a need that only Brazil is equipped to fulfill.
While Sinograin, a state-owned enterprise in China, currently has adequate stocks, the circumstances could shift significantly with heightened acquisitions by other players in the market. This shift may trigger further increases in export premiums and a depletion of China’s domestic soybean reserves.