Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The reconstruction of Ukraine’s agricultural sector is anticipated to exceed $55 billion, as per the updated preliminary damage and needs assessment (RDNA4). This report, a collaborative effort by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations, is referenced by World Grain.
The overall expense for the reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine is projected to reach $524 billion within the next ten years, which is nearly triple the country’s projected nominal GDP for 2024, according to the RDNA4 published on February 25. Key areas of focus include rebuilding essential infrastructure, energy systems, and housing, with agriculture being a distinct category.
Ukraine ranks among the top global exporters of wheat, barley, and corn, and stands as a major supplier of sunflower meal and oil. Losses in the agricultural sector are estimated at approximately $80 billion, according to UkrAgroConsult, an agricultural consulting agency that references information from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
These losses encompass both direct and indirect impacts from disruptions in logistics, land reclamation, areas that are mined or otherwise inaccessible, as well as increases in fertilizer and fuel costs. Calculations from the World Bank indicate that direct losses in agriculture alone are about $11.2 billion, with an additional $700 million allocated for irrigation and water needs.
The most recent USDA report on global agricultural supply and demand forecasts that Ukraine will harvest 22.9 million tons of wheat in the marketing year 2024/25, marking a decrease of 0.43% from the previous season; corn production is expected to drop by 18.5% to 26.5 million tons; barley output is anticipated to reduce by 7% to 5.9 million tons, and sunflower seed production is forecasted to decline by 16.7% to 12.9 million tons.