Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Wheat production in the UK is anticipated to reach approximately 12.5 million tons this year, representing an increase of 1.4 million tons compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, the harvest is projected to fall short of historical averages, largely due to adverse weather conditions impacting crops across southern England. The upcoming months will be critical for yield outcomes, as spring sowing and the development of winter crops will occur during this time.
Helen Plante, the senior analyst for cereals and oilseeds at AHDB, states that achieving the highest average yield seen in the past five years will depend heavily on favorable weather for the remainder of the season. Concurrently, the global market anticipates a general reduction in wheat production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a decrease of 11.4 million tons globally, bringing total production down to 2.28 billion tons.
While an increase in production is expected in the U.S. and Argentina, nations like Russia, Ukraine, and those in the EU may experience lower yields.
In terms of the UK market, feed wheat futures for delivery in May 2025 commenced at £182.7 per ton, marking a decline of nearly £4 per ton from the previous week. On the other hand, prices for new crop deliveries remain elevated, with November futures starting at £195.6 per ton.
Traders from ADM Agriculture have observed that the growing price disparity between old and new contracts is creating advantageous conditions for farmers looking to sell their new crop.