Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
World wheat prices may rise to $250-270 per ton from the current $245-247. This forecast was presented by the head of the analytical center “Rusagrotrans” Igor Pavensky at the session “Grain Market. Prospects for Russia” at Grain Forum Dubai, Finmarket reports.
According to him, the rise in prices will reflect the impact on the future harvest of unfavorable weather conditions that accompany winter crops in Russia this season. This is primarily about the autumn drought, lack of sufficient precipitation and expected frosts, although in general the weather conditions for wintering winter crops were favorable.
The analyst noted that export prices for Russian wheat with shipment in February-March rose to $247 per ton (FOB) and became the highest this season. The reason is the decline in exports from the Black Sea region and rising prices on the domestic market. At the tender of Saudi Arabia, where 920 thousand tons, including Russian wheat was purchased (delivery in May-July), in terms of FOB Novorossiysk the price has already reached $250 per ton.
According to Pavensky, wheat prices on the world market have been stagnating over the past few months due to good harvests in Australia and Argentina, as well as relatively favorable weather conditions for overwintering crops not only in Russia, but also in Ukraine, the EU and the US. The difference between prices for Russian wheat and the grain of its main competitors is only a few dollars, while last fall it reached $20-30 per ton.
According to the Center’s data as of the end of January, wheat exports from the Black Sea region by the four main exporting countries (Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria) were higher than a year ago: 31.5 million tons against 30 million tons last season. However, the balance to be exported from February to June from these four countries is less than 21 million tons compared to 39 million tons a year ago, putting strain on the nearby markets in North Africa and the Middle East.