Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
As of February 10, soybean exports from Ukraine amounted to 78,000 tons, and the market remains stable. At the same time, soybean stocks as of February 1 are estimated at 3.4 million tons, which is significantly higher than in the previous season (2.6-2.7 million tons). This creates the need to intensify sales in February-April, because in May-June traders will focus on the new crop of cereals and rapeseed. This is reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AUC).
“We have enough soybeans, and it is too early to worry. However, closer to spring, demand may decrease, which will affect prices. Therefore, it is important to take this factor into account and plan sales accordingly,” the PUSC said.
The situation on the global market also affects Ukrainian exports. In Brazil, the harvest is delayed due to high moisture in soybeans, resulting in significant losses in the fields. This may change global balances and support prices. In addition, the market is awaiting an updated USDA report, which could adjust production forecasts in South America.
“If crop losses in Brazil and Argentina are confirmed, this could be an additional driver for prices. Already now the seasonal model shows that in late February – early March we may see the level of $400-405 per ton on a CPT basis, and potentially even $410-415 per ton,” PUSK analysts note.
In the domestic market of Ukraine soybean prices are stable:
- $388-393 per ton at ports,
- UAH 17,500-17,700 per ton at processors.
The main constraint remains the weak soybean meal market, so processors cannot actively compete with exporters. In the coming months, some traders may try to expand their margins, especially from May-June, when the main focus will shift to the new harvest. We have already observed similar situations on the market, so it is important to be ready for possible price fluctuations,” the analysts conclude.