Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
According to SovEcon, based on quarterly data from Rosstat, as of January 1, total wheat stocks in Russia amounted to 28.7 million tons. The stocks are 21% below last year’s level, while in October the gap was 14%. The gap between current and last year’s stocks has increased on the back of active sales by agricultural producers.
Total wheat stocks include data on grain storage in agricultural enterprises, procurement and processing organizations, excluding small farms.
The Analytical Center notes that wheat stocks are noticeably lower than last year’s figures in all export regions. In the South the stocks amounted to 7.8 million tons (-37% against last year), in the Center – 6.3 million tons (-32%), in the Volga region – 6.4 million tons (-17%). The most noticeable reduction in stocks was observed among agricultural producers.
As of January 1, wheat stocks in agricultural organizations amounted to 15.4 million tons, which is 29% lower than last year. In December, farmers sold 4.8 million tons of wheat against 4.3 million tons a year earlier. At the same time, wheat stocks at processors and procurers remained at a relatively high level – 13.3 million tons (-9% against last year). Exporters bought grain for the future campaign or in anticipation of higher prices.
One of the key factors in the reduction of stocks in the current season was a relatively low harvest in Russia. Rosstat tentatively estimated the 2024 wheat harvest at 82.4 million tons against 92.8 million a year earlier.
Earlier, SovEcon raised its estimate of the export potential of Russian wheat in 2025/26 agricultural year by 1.9 million tons, to 38.3 million tons, against the background of growth of initial stocks due to the fall in grain exports.