Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
March soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange yesterday rose 1.6% to $395/t (+2.9% for the week and +7.8% for the month) as China decided not to impose duties on US soybeans and unfavorable weather conditions in South America cut bean crop forecasts.
Drought in Argentina is affecting soybean and corn crops, and Argentine stock exchanges lowered soybean harvest estimates to 49.6 million tons from 50.2 million tons last year. Each week without rain results in the loss of at least 5 million tons of potential harvest; in the absence of significant rainfall, final harvest figures could drop to 40 million tons, analysts on the ground said.
According to AgRural, as of Jan. 30, Brazil’s soybeans had been harvested on just 9% of acreage, compared with 16% last year, and corn was planted on 9% of acreage (up from 27% last year).
Quotes are also supported by high rates of soybean processing in the US. Processing reached a record 5.93 million tons in December 2024 and totaled 30.5 million tons in the first 4 months of MY 2024/25, 6.3% above average for the period. U.S. soybean exports for the week of January 24-30 rose 37% to 1.013 million tons, of which 348,000 tons were shipped to China. In total, the US exported 34.066 million tons of soybeans in 2024/25 out of a projected 49.7 million tons.
In Ukraine, export prices for GMO soybeans are holding at $382-385/t with delivery to Black Sea ports as demand falls due to increased shipments from South America. Processors are keeping prices low amid weak demand for meal and difficulties with its realization.
Soybean prices in Russia in the Center are at 41.5 thousand rubles per ton, having increased by 1.3 – 1.6 rubles for the month. Soybean price (FOB Brazil) with delivery for February amounted to 391.13 $/t, which is 6.17 $/t higher than the previous value of 03.02.2025 (384.97 $/t).
The soybean market in the coming weeks will continue to be influenced by weather conditions in South America, which may provide speculative support to quotations. However, activity on the physical market will be low, as buyers are waiting for the results of a record harvest in Brazil.