Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
A quota for grain exports from Russia will be in effect from February 15 to June 30. This year, due to the low 2024 harvest, the size of the quota has almost tripled compared to the previous year, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported. Such restrictions are necessary to ensure a sufficient amount of grain inside the country.
The tariff quota for exports of wheat and a mixture of wheat and rye (meslin) will amount to 10.6 million tons. There is no quota for barley, rye and corn.
This decision was made by the government taking into account the projected balance of production and consumption in the domestic market, as explained in the cabinet.
Given the high harvests in 2022 and 2023, grain exports from Russia have reached record levels. Inside the quota, a floating export duty rate (dampener) will be applied. Outside the quota, the rate will be 50%, but not less than 100 euros per ton.
Tariff quotas do not apply to the export of grain for international humanitarian aid to foreign countries on the basis of government decisions.
It is expected that due to unfavorable weather conditions in 2024 the harvest will be lower, and in the current agricultural year (from July to June) exports may reach 57 million tons, according to the forecast of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Already in the first half of the season, 37 million tons of grain were shipped abroad. However, in the second half of the season exports will be limited by quotas.
The Federal Agroexport Center under the Ministry of Agriculture predicts that by 2030, Russian grain exports could exceed 75 million tons worth more than $17 billion. About 80% of the value will come from wheat, 10% from corn, and 9% from barley.
Russia’s grain export quotas were introduced in 2020. Between April 1 and June 30, 2020, 7 million tons of grain were allowed to be exported. In 2021, the quota was 17.5 million tons, 11 million tons in 2022 (including 8 million tons of wheat), 25.5 million tons in 2023, and 29 million tons of grain were exported under the quota in 2024.
Russia exports grain and its processed products to more than 100 countries.
Earlier, SovEcon lowered its estimate of wheat exports in the 2024/25 season from 43.7 to 42.8 million tons. Last season, 52.4 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russia, while the three-year average was 44.2 million tons. The estimate was revised against the backdrop of low shipment rates.