Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
“The forecast for wheat exports in September 2024 has been increased to 5.5 million tons, taking into account deliveries to the EAEU countries, which corresponds to the record level of 2023,” the Rusagrotrans analysis center announced, Interfax reports.
The center’s previous forecast for September was 5.3 million tons.
According to analysts, export prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) with delivery in September-October remain at USD 216-217 per tonne (FOB), while in November they are above USD 220 per tonne. Prices for French wheat rose during the week to USD 246 (+ USD 1), for US wheat to USD 248 (+ USD 2), while German wheat fell to USD 252 per tonne (- USD 2).
Rusagrotrans also reported that Tunisia bought 125,000 tons of wheat last week, including at least 100,000 tons of Russian wheat, at a price of US$245.83-247.83 per ton (c&f) for deliveries from October 20 to November 20. Bangladesh (one of the top three importers of Russian wheat) said it had decided to buy 400,000 tons of wheat within 15 days to avoid a shortage in the domestic market.
“The wheat market on the exchange was down last week after a rapid rise due to lower sales of US wheat and a high supply of Black Sea wheat, but the volume of short positions on the exchange has halved in the past month,” the center said.
At the same time, there was also some news that supported the Russian market. For example, FranceAgriMer (the French Ministry of Agriculture’s National Institute for Agricultural Products) has lowered its forecast for France’s soft wheat exports outside the EU by 3.5 million tons to 4 million tons and within the EU by 0.5 million tons to 6 million tons in the current season. In Argentina, the proportion of wheat sown in excellent and good condition has fallen from 80% to 71% (compared to 78% in 2023). In the north and west of the country, some fields are already being recorded as losses due to a lack of moisture. The water level of the Parana River, through which 80% of Argentina’s grain and oilseed exports flow, is close to the lowest levels in the history of observations since 1970 (below this level only in 2021) due to the lack of rainfall.
Against this backdrop, Brazil has increased the quota for wheat imports outside the Mercosur countries by 250,000 tons to 1 million tons in 2024. The quota of 750,000 tons has already been exhausted by deliveries from Russia (500,000 tons), the USA and Canada.