Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Ukraine could harvest its largest soybean crop ever in 2024. According to an updated estimate, soybean production in 2024 will be around 5.9-6 million tons (+9% compared to 2023).
Despite the decline in yields, Ukraine expects an increase in production due to the expansion of arable land. The updated data on soybean acreage amounts to 2.66 million hectares (+44% by 2023), while the agency’s estimates are 2.6 million hectares (+28% by 2023). By mid-September, the country had harvested 34% of its soybeans (1.85 million tons on 909,500 hectares). Meanwhile, average yields have improved to 2.03 tons/hectare compared to 1.86 tons/hectare last week, but are still below 2.56 tons/hectare compared to the corresponding areas in the previous year.
Market participants are reporting offers for soybeans from the new crop from farmers who want to complete the harvest for fear of falling prices. However, exporters and processors estimate that there are problems with the quality of the raw material, including immaturity and low protein content.
The expectation of a record global soybean harvest has led to falling prices in Ukraine, as the Ukrainian market remains commodity and export-oriented, with around 57% of production in the 2024/25 marketing year destined for export. However, due to the large supply of soy from South America and increased production in the USA and Brazil, analysts are preparing for noticeable price pressure. Prices in Ukrainian ports currently stand at USD 380-385/tonne CPT port.