Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
In a new report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that exports of soybean meal from the US will reach a record high of almost 16 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year due to a bumper crop.
Increased supply and competitive prices will continue to drive export volumes in the new marketing year. As of August 29, 2024, US sales of soybean meal in the 2024/25 marketing year (October-September) reached a ten-year high compared to the same period in previous years.
Sales in 2024/25 to Canada, the Philippines and Colombia remain strong, reaching nearly 1.2 million tons. Canada is the leading destination for export sales in terms of volume, with growth of 76% compared to the previous year. The Philippines and Colombia are in second and third place in terms of sales figures, followed by Mexico. Vietnam is an emerging market for the United States in the new marketing year with confirmed sales of nearly 250,000 tons. Colombia has significantly increased its purchases in the 2023/24 marketing year; export sales increased from 21,000 to 292,100 tons.
The US is expected to remain the third-largest exporter of soybean meal in 2024/25 due to competitive prices and high inventories, holding a 21% share of the global market.
US soybean production is expected to decline by 3 million bushels to 4.6 billion bushels in 2024/25. With 2024/25 soybean processing and exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 550 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.
The average seasonal US soybean price is forecast unchanged at USD 10.8 per bushel. Soybean meal and soybean oil prices are unchanged at $320 per ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.
Overseas soybean production increased by 0.6 million tons due to higher production in Paraguay and Canada, partially offset by lower production in the EU and Serbia.
Global soybean trade will increase to 181.6 million tons in 2024/25 due to higher exports from Paraguay and imports from Argentina
Global ending stocks of soybeans will increase by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million tons, as higher stocks in Argentina and Canada will be partially offset by lower stocks in the United States and the EU.