Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
According to an Australian analyst, demand for rapeseed in the European Union is likely to be strong this year.
According to Dennis Woznesenski, agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a recent weekly alert and podcast, this is partly due to a poor domestic harvest.
He pointed out that Oil World (Germany) has lowered its forecast for EU canola production in 2024 to 17.6 million tons, down from 20 million tons last year.
“Yield forecasts for France and Germany, where crops have been flooded by rainfall, continue to fall,” Voznesensky said.
The European Commission forecasts an average EU rapeseed/canola yield of 17.85 bushels per acre, two percent below the five-year average.
Excess water in much of the Netherlands, western and southern Germany, northern Italy and central-eastern France is causing problems.
“Winter crops in these regions have been suffering from waterlogging, the associated pests and diseases and the difficulties that farmers have in working the fields since the beginning of the season,” said JRC MARS in a recently published bulletin.
The European Commission expects a production of 18.38 million tons, a decrease from last year’s 19.72 million tons.
Oil World (Germany) also reports harvest problems in the Black Sea regions.
“The unfavorable weather conditions of recent weeks threaten to push the global supply of sunflower and rapeseed oil far below expectations,” the company said on its website.
“The impending decline in the supply of sunflower and rapeseed oil can only be partially offset by soybean oil.”