Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The Ukrainian Grain Association has again revised its estimate of the potential grain and oilseed harvest in Ukraine this year, lowering its forecast by 2.8 million tons to 71.8 million tons, APK-Inform reports.
This is significantly less than last year’s harvest of 82.8 million tons, reports the Ukrainian Grain Association press service.
“This forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the last five years, and any change in these conditions in spring and summer could significantly affect the results. The recent lowering of the forecast is due to the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July, which had a negative impact on potential yields of late cereals and oilseeds,” the report explains the reasons for the forecast change.
According to estimates by the Ukrainian Grain Association, exports of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2024/25 marketing year will amount to 41 million tons, which is 2.5 million tons less than in the previous forecast. Compared to the previous season, the difference in the reduction in exports could amount to 16 million tons.
The 2024 sunflower harvest is expected to be 12.8 million tons, 0.9 million tons below the preliminary estimate (14.2 million tons in 2023). Potential exports could be up to 250,000 tons, while the processing of sunflowers into vegetable oil could reach 12.5 million tons. Last season, processing was 13.5 million tons.
The rapeseed harvest is estimated at 4.3 million tons (4.5 million tons in 2023), while exports could reach 3.4 million tons in the 2024/2025 marketing year (3.7 million tons in the current season).
Despite an increase in soybean acreage, unfavourable weather conditions will not allow for a larger harvest due to low yields, so the final volume is expected to be 4.8 million tons, 0.7 million tons less than in the preliminary estimate. Potential exports in the 2024/2025 marketing year could reach 3.5 million tons (last season it was almost 3 million tons).
Previously, the Ukrainian Seed Association had predicted a drop in oilseed yields of up to 30% due to soil drought and high temperatures. In July, the country also experienced an unusual heatwave, which particularly affected the southern region of the country.
The 2024 wheat harvest is estimated at 19.8 million tons, with an export potential of around 13 million tons. Barley production could reach 4.95 million tons, with exports of around 2 million tons.