The Russian Ministry of Agriculture is maintaining its earlier forecast for this year’s grain harvest at 132 million tons, 86 million tons of which will be wheat. However, the ministry points out that the forecast may be adjusted as the harvest progresses. Grain exports could reach 60 million tons in the current marketing year.
In its July report, the International Grains Council (IGC) left its forecast for the gross grain and wheat harvest in Russia unchanged. The grain harvest is estimated at 121.7 million tons, the wheat harvest at 81.8 million tons. Grain exports from the Russian Federation are estimated at 53.4 million tons and wheat exports at 43.3 million tons.
In its July report, the US Department of Agriculture left the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia in the current 2024/25 marketing year unchanged – 83 million tons. The forecast for wheat exports from Russia remained at 48 million tons.
JSC Rusagrotrans has not published any new harvest forecasts. In May, the wheat harvest in 2024 was estimated at 84.2 million tons according to the optimistic forecast and 130.9 million tons for all types of grain. The forecast for wheat exports in the current season is 43 million tons according to the optimistic scenario.
The Russian Grain Association forecasts the gross grain harvest in the Russian Federation this year at a maximum of 125-130 million tons and the wheat harvest at a maximum of 80-82 million tons. According to the president of the association, winter crops in Russia have suffered from frosts on almost 30% of the area, which is a serious loss, but the decline in yields this year will not be catastrophic. Analysts estimate the average yield this year at 26 c/ha. A new forecast for exports of the main cereals has not yet been published. In the past, grain exports were estimated at 69-70 million tons, including 57 million tons of wheat.
In its latest forecast, the Institute of Agricultural Market Economy (ICAR) lowered the grain harvest in Russia to 128 million tons and total grain exports to 55 million tons. The experts note a decline in wheat yields in the southern and central federal districts by the end of the second decade of July. However, the forecast for the wheat harvest was raised to 83.2 million tons at the expense of the Volga regions, where the state of crops was recently assessed. Wheat exports are estimated at 44 million tons.
SovEcon analysts have raised their estimate for wheat production in the 2024/25 season to 84.1 million tons. The adjustment is due to a decline in the wheat harvest in the southern regions, which could be offset by an increase in production in Siberia and the Urals, where high moisture reserves should lead to good yields. A new estimate of the gross grain harvest has not yet been published; in June it was 127.4 million tons. The forecast for wheat exports in June was estimated at 46.1 million tons.
In its latest consensus forecast, published at the end of June, the Association of Grain Exporters estimates this year’s grain harvest in Russia at 125.3 million tons, of which 79.3 million tons is wheat. Grain exports in this agricultural year are estimated at 53.5 million tons, including 40 million tons of wheat.
In July, the analysis center ProZerno estimated the gross grain harvest in 2024 at 128.2 million tonnes, including 82 million tonnes of wheat, but sees reason to revise the estimates in the future, as yields are likely to fall in the course of the “high temperature” harvest campaign. No new export forecast has been published. Previously, the potential for grain exports was estimated at 55.2 million tons, including wheat exports of 43.2 million tons.
Gazprombank’s Price Index Center (PIC) has not published new estimates for the current year’s harvest. In May, the gross grain harvest was estimated at 134 million tons and the wheat harvest at 86.1 million tons. Wheat exports from Russia were estimated at 46.1 million tons.
Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)