Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange mostly rose on Tuesday, with the most active contracts/market analysts said the index hit a two-week high on short covering and potential risk premiums due to warmer U.S. weather forecasts.
However, the nearest soybean futures contract eased towards the end of the session and CBOT soybean futures for August delivery fell 1/4 cent to $11.17-1/2 a bushel.
The most active soybean futures for November delivery rose 6.3/4 cents to $10.75.5 a bushel. The most active soybean contract reached $10.86-3/4 a bushel, its highest price since July 9.
In CBOT trading, August soybean meal futures fell $0.90 to $342.70 a short ton and December soybean meal futures fell $0.30 to $319.10 a short ton.
CBOT soybean oil futures ended the day mixed. Soybean oil futures for August delivery fell 0.34 cents to 46.66 cents per pound, while soybean oil futures for December rose 0.28 cents to 45.13 cents per pound.
Crop ratings were little changed this week and remain above five-year averages, signaling to the trade that yield potential remains high.
However, the long-term outlook for the U.S. Midwest is starting to warm, causing traders with weak short positions to worry that this weather could impact cap replenishment later in the summer.
Late Monday night, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that 68% of the U.S. soybean crop is in good to excellent condition, the same as last week. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, this was also in line with trade expectations.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended Tuesday’s trading lower as ample global wheat supplies and strong export competition pressured the trading range, market analysts said.
U.S. wholesale soft red-grain winter wheat futures for September fell 5.1/4 cents to $5.42-3/4 a bushel. KC September hard red-grain winter wheat futures fell 5 cents to $5.66-3/4 a bushel, and MGEX September spring wheat futures fell 7-1/4 cents to $6.15-1/2 a bushel.
CBOT wheat futures rose briefly during the session as they were supported by hot and dry weather forecasts for parts of Canada and the Black Sea region, as well as poor crop prospects in France.
However, wheat futures eased mid-session as prospects for a large wheat crop in Russia, supported by a slight increase in the Russian crop forecast from consultancy Sovecon, and competitive exports from the Black Sea region limited prices.
Late Monday night, the US Department of Agriculture reported that the US winter wheat harvest was 76% complete for the week ending July 21, up from 71% the previous week. According to a Reuters poll of analysts, this was below trade expectations.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 77% of spring wheat grown in the Northern Plains was in good to excellent condition, above industry expectations.
Corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange extended gains for a second day on Tuesday, with the most active contract hitting a two-week high, according to market analysts, due to short covering and concerns about the impact of weather conditions on the U.S. crop.
CBOT September corn futures rose 2.1/4 cents to $4.02.1/2 a bushel, while the most active December corn futures rose 2.1/4 cents to $4.17.1/4 a bushel.
Earlier, the most active contract peaked at $4.22.5 a bushel, the highest since July 8.
Commodity funds hold a sizable net short position in CBOT corn futures, leaving the market open to a rally by covering short positions.
The US Department of Agriculture on Monday confirmed private sales of 200,000 metric tons of US new crop corn to unknown destinations, marking the second time in recent days that corn sales have been announced.
Market analysts say traders are watching for reports from the U.S. Western Corn Belt, where fields are showing signs of crop stress due to heavy rains in the spring and early summer.
Late Monday night, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that 67 percent of the U.S. corn crop was in good to excellent condition, down one point from the previous week but still the highest for this time of year since 2020.
According to a Reuters poll of analysts, traders had expected the U.S. Department of Agriculture to classify the condition of 68% of the corn crop as good or excellent.
Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange closed higher as funds unwound short positions.
One analyst said that with Tuesday’s gains, canola could reach C$700 per metric ton. A canola crop of 20 million metric tons is still possible despite heat damage to flowering canola and later sown fields.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised its forecast for 2024-25 canola production to 18.63 million metric tons, up from 18.10 million metric tons in June. The report noted that canola acreage increased from 8.66 million hectares to 8.91 million hectares.
The rapeseed contract for November remained well above its key moving averages, underpinning its positive outlook.
Canola margins narrowed and November positions fell to CAD 88-94 per tonne across the futures.
Canola was also supported by a rise in Chicago soybeans, but there were losses in soybean oil and soybean meal. While Malaysian palm oil was relatively stable, European rapeseed fell.
Weakness in crude oil prices put pressure on the vegetable oil sector.
The Canadian dollar fell to 72.59 US cents compared to Monday’s closing price of 72.70.
Prices are quoted in Canadian dollars per metric ton:
- November 678.40 +5.30
- January 682.80 +5.00
- March 683.90 +4.10
- May 679.30 +2.20