Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The Rusagrotrans analysis center has lowered its estimate for wheat exports in July from 2.8 to 2.5 million tons (-68% year-on-year).
“The global market is weakening against the backdrop of an improved forecast for the wheat harvest in the USA and an active launch of new grain. In France, wheat forecasts have been revised downwards as current crop yields are below expectations,” the center said.
The lower forecast is due to the current pace of exports in the first decade of the month (around 0.7 million tons). “This is the lowest level since July 2021 and 2022 (2.25 million and 2.23 million tons respectively).
The domestic wheat market also weakened for the most part. Wheat prices (“Class 4”, 12.5% protein, EXW Elevator) fell to 13,200-13,500 roubles per tonne (-700 roubles) in the south and to 12,900-13,000 roubles (-500 roubles) in the Volga region. In Central Russia – to 14,500-14,600 rubles per ton (-200 rubles). In Siberia, prices for class 4 wheat remained in the range of about 11,800-12,700 rubles per ton (EXW Elevator).
It should be recalled that the tariff rate for wheat exports from Russia increased by 4.7% for the first time in several weeks, amounting to 1,780.5 rubles per ton as of July 17, compared to 1,701.3 rubles per ton a week earlier.