Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
In the 2024/25 marketing year, the global market for rapeseed could develop positively due to the prospects of lower yields in the main producing countries – Ukraine, Canada and Australia, according to Andrei Novoselov and Yuriy Gavrylyuk from Barva Invest in the Trend&Hedge Club, as reported by ASAP Agri.
In the EU in particular, dry weather prevailed during the planting season, which limited the area under cultivation. This was compounded by less than ideal weather – frosts in Germany, Ukraine and France – which damaged the early flowering crops. The question now is how much smaller the EU harvest could be, although it will definitely be smaller than last year.
“This is an interesting point for Ukraine, because given the situation on the EU rapeseed market, Europe’s total import needs could be higher,” says Novoselov.
Canada could offer a good rapeseed crop on the world market in the new season, while Australia and its crop prospects need to be watched as it is expected to harvest less oilseed than last year.
The global supply of rapeseed will be lower in the 2024/25 marketing year, resulting in higher import demand.
“The gross harvest in Ukraine will also be lower compared to last season, which may lead to a reduction in global supply. The USDA forecasts a decline in processing in the country from 1 million tons in the 23/24 marketing year to 0.4 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year. It should be noted that the 2023/24 marketing year was unusual for the Ukrainian market, as 0.5 million tons of rapeseed were processed in the first three months of the season, although Ukraine normally exports 65% of its rapeseed export potential during this period. This is primarily due to the work of Ukrainian ports. When it is not possible to ship rapeseed for export, processors have started to actively process it,” the expert explained.
He added that a different picture may emerge this season, as the Ukrainian sea corridor continues to function, which means that there may be strong competition between processors and exporters in Ukraine, which is also supported by the prospects of maintaining quite high prices for rapeseed in the new season.”